Saturday, January 5, 2008

Top 10 Prospects: AL Central


This was probably the hardest of my top 10 lists to make. With the recent arrivals of Miguel Cabrera and Nick Swisher, a couple of AL Central teams have had their farm systems ravaged. What's left isn't too pretty.

1. Mike Moustakas- SS- Kansas City
- As I mentioned in my AL East Top 10 Prospects, I don't like putting a guy who has so few minor league at bats #1, but Moustakas has so much potential that it's hard to avoid. Not only was Moustakas ranked as the best athlete in the Royals system by Baseball America, but they also said he had the best fastball and best curveball, even though he's not a pitcher. The fact that he's about a year older than the rest of his high school class worries some, but not me.

2. Tyler Robertson-LHP-Minnesota- Scouts don't seem to like Robertson that much, but his stats would absolutely blow you away. 123 strikeouts compared to just 33 walks with a 2.29 ERA as a 19 year old in High A. Lefties with good command like Robertson tend to dominate a lot in the lower levels, so it will be interesting to see if Robertson can continue that on his ascent to the majors.

3. Rick Porcello-RHP-Detroit- Kind of the reverse of Tyler Robertson. Scouts love him, but I worry that the numbers might not be there, at least right away. Scouts called him the best pitcher outside of David Price in the 2007 draft, but he reminds me a bit of Mark Rogers, a former top 5 pick of the Milwaukee Brewers who has battled injuries thus far in his career. Still, there can be no doubt that the potential is there.

4. Beau Mills-1B-Cleveland- Last year at NAIA Lewis and Clark State, Mills had one of the best collegiate seasons ever:
.458/.556/1.033. The number 13 pick in the draft, Mills will be pushed quickly through the Indians system due to his three year collegiate career. Mills had a 42.2% extra base hit rate last year, suggesting that getting pushed is all right with him.

5. Adam Miller-RHP-Cleveland- This placement is more for potential than performance. Mills only threw 65.1 innings last year due to elbow problems, but he still pitched well when he threw, with over a 3/1 K/BB rate. Miller probably figures into Cleveland's bullpen going forward, but he still has the stuff to be an impact pitcher.

6. Luke Hochevar-RHP-Kansas City- The #1 overall pick in 2006 out of Tennessee, Hochevar posted a 1.38 WHIP in Double and Triple A in 2007, while striking out 138 players. Some see Hochevar as a #2, others see him as a #3. The number doesn't really matter, what does matter is he will at least be able to eat innings for an AL team, which is a quality a lot of pitchers don't share.

7. Ben Revere-CF-Minnesota- Ranked the Twins #1 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, Revere is a pure speedster who can absolutely fly. Revere went .325/.388/.461 in the Gulf Coast League, which is tons better than most experts predicted. Revere also stole 21 bases, although only had a 70% success rate. If he can learn to use his speed better at the plate, Revere might be a draft day steal.

8. Jeff Larish-1B-Detroit- I haven't seen many of Larish's at bats, but judging from the ones I have seen and from his statistics, I see similarities between him and Mark Bellhorn. Larish is a patient hitter, drawing 87 walks last year and striking out 108 times. For a power hitter such as him, thats not a bad ratio at all. Larish also had nearly a 50% extra base hit rate last year, suggesting a lot of his at bats will end up in a strikeout, walk or extra base hit.

9. Aaron Laffey-LHP-Cleveland- Laffey is an extreme ground ball pitcher, something that I think is a touch underrated in baseball circles. However, one place that may not benefit him much is Cleveland, whose infield defense is pretty subpar. Look for Laffey to open 2007 in the rotation, but I wonder if his ERA will spike due to adjusting to the majors and pitching in front of that defense.

10. Aaron Poreda, LHP-Chicago- The 20 year old posted a .84 WHIP in the Pioneer League in 2007. He struck out a little more than a batter an inning and walked about 1 every four. With the way the Sox have been trading lately, cynical Sox fans must be wondering how long it will be until Poreda gets shipped off.

1 comment:

twins15 said...

Interesting... I did not know Revere had hit that well.